Best criminology "realistic" shows that for an event delittuso need three things: a offender ben determinato, ma anche un suitable target e l'assenza di un capable guardian che lo possa impedire. Come tutti possono intuire è molto più facile intervenire e modificare il comportamento o gli stili di vita della vittima, piuttosto che agire sulla condotta criminale e quindi il secondo e il terzo fattore sono di importanza fondamentale. Eppure per molto tempo si è concentrata l'attenzione solo sull'autore del reato e la criminologia è divenuto un campo di battaglia tra opposte concezioni dell'eziologia criminale intente ad indagare le cause e le motivazioni individuali e sociali del crimine per fornire rimedi alla società sui modi migliori per combatterlo, perciò l'esame del ruolo giocato the opportunities, linked to theories such as routine activity theory the c rhyme pattern theory and the rational choice perspective forensic # has long been underestimated because it contrasted with the approach of the Conservatives, centered on the concept of moral guilt and pay, and the generally liberal or socialist, all stretched out to remove the social causes - real or imagined - of deviance, but in recent decades in many Western countries such doctrines have made inroads, gaining importance in the debate political (eg UK.). Needless to say, victimology, as branch of criminology that is interested in vittima di un crimine e di tutto ciò che a questa si riallaccia, come la sua personalità, cioè i suoi tratti biologici, psicologici e morali, le sue caratteristiche socio-culturali, le sue relazioni con l’autore del reato ed infine il suo ruolo e l’eventuale influenza nella genesi e nella dinamica del delitto ( Balloni ), è essenziale alla prospettiva anzidetta perché può fornire elementi utili alla comprensione dei meccanismi della criminogenesi e della criminodinamica.
# All theories that have been analyzed from different angles with the dynamic of opportunity and its interaction with the motivational variables of the individual offender - last cited, in particular, has tried to reorganize in the most micro the basics of forensic speech, using also the contribution of economists who have applied to the study of crime as Gary Becker, but getting rid of the strict methodological simplifications of its mathematical formalization. In fact, the economic models largely ignore rewards resulting from the offense that can not be easily translated into a monetary equivalent, and secondly, the economic theories have not been sensitive to the wide variety of behaviors that are contained in the general definition of "crime", with their variety of costs and benefits, and instead have tried to group them together as a single variable in their equations, the mathematical model to decide criminal economic theories often require data that are not available or can be used only by inferences unrealistic of what they represent, finally, 'image of an individual to maximize the results of its decisions, carefully calculating his advantage, does not sit well with the increasingly reckless and opportunistic nature of most crimes.
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In Italy it is known that there is in public communication, which also speaks in length and large (and morbidity) of criminal events, a shred of risk information victimology. It is believed that this is due to the fact that, beyond the rhetorical and literary patina that traditionally surrounds him, our country is an intellectually crude, and so politicians and the media have the fear that a serious conversation on the cd. situational crime prevention based on behavior analysis of victims that may make it more attractive or desirable easy paying the commission of a crime, be misunderstood as a form of blaming the victim or mitigation of liability and / or morality of the offender. Nothing could be further from the truth, of course, as we have learned some Anglo-Saxon countries where this culture, as mentioned above, it has gradually spread and that certainly can not be accused of weakness in the treatment of criminals. If our political debate is now focused on the most suitable spasmodically to dramatically reduce crime, it is necessary that it also moves on the structure of criminal opportunities, which play a key role on the quantitative levels of the misconduct. A good approach situational prevention, minimalist in appearance and banal, perhaps disappointing for those who still give exclusive importance to the traditional school of thought that studying the etiology of criminal #, but empirical studies have often proved more effective the ability to reduce certain types of crime, should be adopted (and information campaigns on lifestyle risk is a useful tool for certain crimes) not just to enable an individual to defend themselves - even Decided on the basis of their conduct a real assessment of the risks - but also because in many cases the phenomena of displacement are more limited than you might think a crime and avoid the risk does not simply move to another place less defensible or against another person less cautious, but simply deletes it ontologically, leading to the phenomena of withdrawal pure and simple for the benefit of society.
# schools of thought totally focused on the figure of the author and that privilege, reverberating in the political debate in the usual left-right positions, preventing formal salary accompanied by one hand and prevention based on social rehabilitation and social reforms on the other - that may be of opposite sign to another: the goal of reducing unemployment, as a desirable place for disease prevention, has pursued policies very different from a liberal or a socialist
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Now, to illustrate, you may want to take a cue from the case, a particular type of crime that often rises to the headlines - the last a few days ago in Sesto San Giovanni: in the ggressioni to pairs in isolated places that are secluded in the suburbs of big cities. In general, the forensic paradox which can be observed with regard to crimes of violence against women that rightly arouse much public alarm - though the figures of the phenomenon to be reassured in relation to other European countries - is very indicative of the damage that ignorance can cause. In fact, the lack of the most elementary precautions living with phobia of pure phenomena: the unreasonable hardship for some women to do short stretches of road alone at night in big cities is accompanied, even in the same person, with the frequent overestimation of the protective capacity of trusted individuals are male (called illusion of protection ) in very risky. The data indicate that, despite the clichés, it is statistically less likely that a woman is exposed to greater risk of attack when alone than when accompanied by a man and above all they tell us that in the first case the victim fails to thwart the consummation of the crime in a larger number of cases. The reason is simple: first, when one is generally more conservative in the ducts and in the choice of time and place of passage and stop (eg. Tends not to stay in dark places and islands) and on the other hand, more probable success in foiling the attack (by flight or other) depend on the same form of aggression, namely the fact that single women sometimes tend to be victims of random chance and that lone attackers tried to take this opportunity . In contrast, couples not only pay for reasons guessed in a state of (relative) great risk as a fixed target objective, but are exposed to a kind of more violent attacks in the manner and at a very high rate of success, because in most cases such victims are not random victims but selected (because of trends routine in the choice of time and place) , shares not impromptu but planned not lonely but group, often at gunpoint - the latest facts and Guidonia Sixth merely confirmed the trend Traditional .*
As is well known to the savants of the most effective actions to situational prevention is proportionate to the minute specificity and detail of the same. It makes no sense to think in terms of theft or aggression but of different types of theft (theft of high-end car for example.) Or assault (sexual assault against a group of couples, which is our case for example.). In the largest genus of sexual violence, this specific type of sexual aggression, with any corollaries in terms of robbery and injury - with the victims of the couples in the suburbs of big cities - can be more easily and dramatically eliminated by simple ownership of potential victims rather than strengthening the traditional arsenal of prevention formal (in terms of criminal law or administrative) or resorting to onerous monitoring. Without oppress freedom of choice of individuals, while they could be informed about risk factors so they can subjectively assess the trade-off between the minimum sacrifice of freedom required to avoid the risk and severity of the incident , if it remains unlikely that in absolute terms, is so unfortunate in the results to suggest that the game is not worth the candle - to be clear: no sane person, having read the ISTAT survey of victimization that indicates the generic out of the house the evening as a factor that increases tenfold the risk of crime, would be closed in the house lifetime, and it would also be unreasonable - or rather: demented - to prevent cases such as that which occurred in Rome in the park of Caffarella requiring teenagers to not walk in public parks in broad daylight (the safety of these places during the day is a duty of the authorities the citizen has a right to expect: there the guard capable n there must be), but faced with the inevitable political squabbles of all against all that you see today in the local office in Milan (president of the province thunders against PD the government citing the 20 rapes of the Fall 2009, a figure actually very low, the opposition in the PDL Sesto Sangiovanni PD thunders against the mayor asks, "What intends to do ") that you would honesty say very clearly that there can be an agent to monitor every street in the dark hinterland of Milan at the weekend and further tighten the laws and practices adopted to control immigration, which are already at the limit of civilization, it would not be as effective as the simple elimination of these dangerous habits.
are not accustomed to the considerations of costume and I will not venture into this field, but raises some concern - and then feeds the doubt whether the not informed of the risk or acceptance of that - the news reported in the chronicles of TG5 that the house where the male component attacked the couple lives with their parents just a few hundred yards from the site of the attack. In this regard it would be interesting to know which mental representation of the victims - not just people on kids for almost 30 years - you do in these cases the trade-off between sacrifice in monetary terms (hotel room) or privacy (room in the house of parents) that would eliminate the risk (yes unlikely in absolute terms but in relation to a humanly catastrophic adverse event) and the acceptance of that risk: there is a distortion of perception that a phenomenon similar to that described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book Fooled by case , a causa del rapporto tra asimmetria delle probabilità ed asimmetria degli esiti (per un'illustrazione del concetto si veda Phastidio ) o invece la spesa, e soprattutto il sacrificio in termini di minor privacy, sono ritenuti a tal punto rilevanti da plasmare le condotte delle vittime? *
In conclusione, sempre con un occhio ai dati, non resta che un consiglio stile pubblicità progresso : specialmente se si vive nel territorio delle province di Roma e Milano, meglio evitare tale comportamento; se proprio ci tenete almeno variate orari e luogo (a Milano città meglio non andare oltre la circonvallazione esterna) e valutate il possesso di un arma, although the surprise effect of the aggression against victims distracted by the pleasant activity but mpegnativa can make it useless but clever because they are not let in CIT robberies or assaults unfortunate that come back from work while leaving the machine, perhaps in the underground car park: be crimes of this kind is to be fools, rape is a rape of those too. Again, it is not victim blaming - often launched prosecution against the policies of situational prevention - but simply to inform people about behaviors that put children at risk.
* On the subject, I remember a paper that, based on criminal statistics of the largest judicial districts, correlated with increased risk for Italian women to undergo this specific kind of rapes and assaults to the socio-economic phenomenon of "big babies", with no significant up to age Population of autonomy, I remind myself, en passant, that on such sensible considerations grafted unhinged attempts to demonstrate in style Amartya Sen , the indistinguishability between positive freedom and negative freedom (if you have a lot of positive freedom - a house - also increases the negative - not being attacked) it is clear that in practice these freedoms interact, but that we can not confuse them on a theoretical level.
